How has past post-electoral violence in Kenya resulted in a low voter turnout in the 2022 electoral period?

With the recent conclusion of the third general election and fourth presidential election since the establishment of the 2010 Kenya constitution, Kenya has faced the lowest voter turnout since the beginning of the declaration of independence and the promulgation of democracy. Despite the democratic standing of the country, for the past three electoral periods, there has been an insurgency in violence against opposing tribes which for the last two electoral periods have been the Wagaluo tribe based primarily in western Kenya and the Kikuyu tribe based primarily in central Kenya. However despite the violence being rooted in tribalism for the past two electoral periods one of the primary actors in this violence has been the police force of Kenya as well as the citizen protestors from a national level of analysis. Because of the government's heavy standing in corruption after every voting period the losing candidate and by extension tribe claim that the votes have been manipulated in the winner's favour. On the other hand, as realized internationally by non-state actors such as human rights watch, it is evident that peaceful protestors are well within their freedom of expression rights to protest peacefully against the results of a democratic election from an international perspective. The excessive force used in response by the police force however has not only infringed upon the citizens’ freedom of expression but has also set a precedent for negative peace during electoral periods as well as violent conflict. This shaped my research to cover the topic of; how has past post-electoral violence in Kenya resulted in a low voter turnout in the 2022 electoral period?

My interest in this topic sparked whilst watching the news and being informed of the violence citizens’ have been facing pre-election along the coast of Kenya during political demonstrations. The news coverage reminded me of past electoral violence, despite being relatively contemporary in global politics I never had a proper understanding of the complexities of this case study. However, having studied the manifestations of hard and soft power in contemporary global politics as well as the forms of peace (in relation to tribal relations) and forms of conflict both violent and non-violent in nature I began analyzing the past cases of post-election violence of 2007-2008 and 2017 through different levels of analysis. After the general election had been concluded and the low voter turnout was analyzed I began wondering about the different perspectives and ideologies that have driven the different actors both state and non-state in this conflict. In essence, after realizing that the negative peace surrounding the general elections has been a result of the violent conflict which has demoralized the majority of the Kenyan population as they have no faith in the proceedings of the general election and further don’t want to partake in any conflict which from a local level of analysis citizens’ are inadvertently placed in such positions after partaking in the general election, resulting in a large percentage of registered voters not to cast any vote.

To explore this issue further I decided to interview two citizens who have both faced post-election violence in different time periods but had a different approach to the recent electoral period. First, I interviewed the chief of the Wagaluo tribe in Kisumu, Kenya who was a part of the peaceful protests during the 2017 electoral period and experienced first-hand the negative response by the police force towards protestors and the Wagaluo tribe at large in the Kisumu region and since has experienced negative peace in relation to the police force. The interviewee had a different approach to the 2022 general election deciding to have faith in the development made by Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to bridge the gaps caused by inequalities and deciding to cast his vote again. On the other hand, I also interviewed a resident of Nairobi county who experienced the post-election violence in 2007- 2008 which was recorded to be the most violent electoral period Kenya has ever experienced. The interviewee decided not to cast any votes since the 2007 election, representing the viewpoint of the Kenyan citizens who largely decided to forfeit their citizen governmental rights in a democratic state as they don’t have faith in the legitimacy of the electoral process. Additionally, during the electoral period, I also attended the presidential debate conference in person where I could gauge the political theories that govern each political party to understand more about the candidates, as it is the first electoral period in eight years that the former president Uhuru Kenyatta has participated in. Moreover, I attended the online broadcasts on the day of the election results which helped me get first-hand information on the status of the electoral process as well as the general population's response.

The widest spread of violence ever witnessed during an electoral period happened in 2007- 2008 which engulfed Kenya as Raila Odinga claimed that the votes of the then President Mwai Kibaki were doctored in the president's favour. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that in all, more than 1,200 Kenyans were reported killed, thousands more injured, over 300,000 people displaced and around 42,000 houses and many businesses were looted or destroyed ("UN HUMAN RIGHTS TEAM ISSUES REPORT ON POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE IN KENYA", 2022). In my engagement, I learnt that the two main actors of the 2007- 2008 were the citizens of the two main ethnic tribes the Wajaluo who are of the same ethnic tribe as Raila Odinga and the Kikuyu who are of the same ethnic tribe as former president Mwai Kibaki. The interviewee was also a part of the widespread protests in the capital city Nairobi, from this I learnt that despite the two main actors being citizens of different ethnic tribes as reported by the OHCHR, the government institutions of Kenya were also a large actor within the conflict by using excessive force to try to stop the tribal conflict. Furthermore, it was noted by my interviewee as well as the OHCHR noted that the government institutions of Kenya failed to enforce law and order and stop the widespread ethnic attacks in all areas of the country during the two months of attacks, the failure of these government institutions shook the legitimacy of the Kenyan government from a national perspective as well as a global perspective (Basingire, 2022).

In addition, in all the periods of post-election violence, social media was used as a platform for increased participatory journalism and communication between citizens as an alternative medium of protest ("Social Media and Post-Election Crisis in Kenya", 2022). However, during the post-election violence of 2007-2008, the capital was a hotspot for violence and mass demonstrations. Following the announcement of President Kibaki’s announcement of victory as well as claims of doctored results as he too announced electoral victory was chaotic with the media and citizens not knowing what information was false this issue and civil unrest were compounded further when the internal security minister John Michuki announced the ban of live broadcast restricting all the media coverage on government and its internal proceedings (Basingire, 2022). It was evident at the time that the government was trying to exert autonomy over the citizens by preventing ways in which they could form collisions that could threaten the government. Despite the institutional media being manipulated and silenced by strongarming of the government during both the 2007-8008 and 2017 electoral period, soft power in the form of globalization and the digital era increased the citizen's freedom of expression on the electoral results. The negative result however was the platforms being used as a tool for demonstrations and mass protests to be planned which ultimately was one of the main contributors to the high death toll. Through these accounts, I believe that the government infringing upon the citizen's freedoms was a determining factor in the reduced voter turnout of 2022 as the restricted communication can be seen as unjustifiable from a local level of analysis.

Further, In 2017 post-election violence occurred between the primary actors of the wagaluo tribe and the police force of Kenya. Unlike in the 2007- 2008 violence, the conflict wasn’t primarily motivated by tribalism but rather was a conflict based on freedom of expression. In 2017 following the dispute by Raila Odinga over the electoral results and the IEBC declaring a revote violent conflict arose during the recounting period. Despite a majority of the protests being peaceful in hopes of raising awareness, the police force of Kenya responded in a highly violent manner including unlawful killings and beatings during protests. Further, the police also performed house-to-house operations in western Kenya where a majority of the wagluo tribe who belonged to Uhuru Kenyatta's opposition Raila Odinga lived, the police force claimed these operations were done to find the cause of the insurgent's violence (Briana Duggan, 2022). During my engagement, I learnt about the effect of the brutal crackdown on protestors and residents in Kisumu which was seen as a tool of repression in opposition strongholds, regionally the house- to- house operations conducted by the police were seen as another unjust invasion of the communities privacy and rights. As the chief of the region, my interviewee felt undermined in his authority over the region as the protests were peaceful and were an outlet to allow his community members freedom of expression, however, the way it was received by the government was highly negative and created still existing negative peace between the community members and the government (Maganga, 2022).

In the 2022 general elections, the voter turnout was 14 million Kenyans nationwide, which based on the national registered voter's accounts brings the total percentage of voters to 65.4% (Kenya 2022 - Elections marred by low-voter turnout, technology failure, bribery. (2022)). After attending the 2022 presidential debate to understand the political ideologies of the candidates better, I observed the official questioning which is done by news networks within the nation as they are a better representation of the general public. I noted that the questions that were asked were about the political promises made by each candidate and their parties and the assurance that the promises were going to be fulfilled and the methods that would be used to ensure this. This gave me another perspective on another determining factor in the low voter turnout being the lack of faith in the presidential candidates to fulfil their campaign promises as well as the high corruption index brought about by these candidates hindering the sustainable development of the country. Additionally, when questioned about the political promises the candidates gave vague answers as to the methods they would use to implement these promises. From my perspective, this was another determining factor in the low voter turnout as the political candidates are surrounded by corruption.

In conclusion, from the perspectives gathered through my engagements I've become more cognizant of the complex conflicts both violent and non-violent that have occurred to result in citizens’ not realizing their governmental election right to vote for a candidate. As both the violent post-electoral conflicts have set a precedent for violence as well as surrounded the voting period in negative peace between the citizens and the government bodies. However, through my engagements, I have captured another factor that caused a low voter turnout being that the corruption surrounding the prospective politicians is high resulting in citizens' lack of faith in them to realize their political promises as well as develop Kenya during their time in office. To conclude, my interviews with community members who have experienced post-election violence in the culmination of both soft power and hard power being used in order to effect social justice for various actors during the post-election violence throughout various electoral periods in Kenya calls into question the legitimacy of the government as an institution that protects its citizen's freedoms and rights.

• Kenya - Post-Election Killings, Abuse. (2022). Retrieved 22 July 2022, from https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/08/27/kenya-post-election-killings-abuse
• Maganga, R. (2022). Experience during the 2017 post election violence [In person]. Kilifi, Kenya.
• Briana Duggan, C. (2022). 24 killed in post-election violence in Kenya, the group says. Retrieved 22 July 2022, from https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/12/africa/kenya-elections-protests/index.html
• UN HUMAN RIGHTS TEAM ISSUES REPORT ON POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE IN KENYA. (2022). Retrieved 24 July 2022, from https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2009/10/un-human-rights-team-issues-report-pos t-election-violence-kenya\
• Social Media and Post-Election Crisis in Kenya. (2022). Retrieved 24 July 2022, from https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=ictafrica
• Basingire, N. (2022). Experience during the 2007-2008 post electoral period [In person]. Kilifi, Kenya.
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• Kenya 2022: Elections marred by low-voter turnout, technology failure, bribery. (2022). Retrieved 9 October 2022, from https://www.theafricareport.com/230824/kenya-2022-elections-marred-by-low-voter-turn out-technology-failure-bribery/