Are we too quick to assume that the most recent evidence is inevitably the strongest? discuss with reference to the natural sciences and one other area of knowledge.

Evidence can be described as the signs you can see, hear, experience, or read to support the truth of an assertion. In simple words, it can be a form of proof to support a claim. There are a lot of factors that contribute to the way we perceive evidence such as personal beliefs and experiences, emotional states, social influences, and evidently cognitive bias. Additionally, man is an irrational animal. The human being as an irrational animal depicts his drive by instincts and deep desires that he has no control over. Meaning, we let internal factors such as emotions and beliefs get in the way of our thinking. Consequently, we believe what we want to believe, which is why we are biased regarding this topic. Depending on our beliefs, we want to accept what we find benefits our position the most. This particular belief is called confirmation bias. However, wouldn’t the act of only going after what we find beneficial limit the understanding of our world? This raises the question; To what extent does bias limit our knowledge?  Hence, this essay will depict through the reference of natural sciences and history how we are too quick to assume that the most recent evidence is inevitably the strongest.

The term “we” in the research question is a personal pronoun that refers to people in general. It may include scientists, writers, historians, as well as me. Therefore, I will be using my experience in the area of knowledge of history as an example. Climate change is a flux, meaning it has drastically changed throughout history. For instance, according to an analysis done by NASA, the Earth’s temperature in 2022 is approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than the late 19th-century average temperature. Although this difference does not seem like much, according to a series of UN reports the Earth’s temperature must not rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, yet they expect it to rise up to three degrees Celcius by the end of the century. If the Earth's temperature keeps rising at this speed, it will eventually lead to drastic consequences that have already begun to happen, such as violent fires, melting polar ice, rising sea levels, catastrophic storms, and an overall decrease in biodiversity. Accordingly, this issue has gained a lot of popularity as it has become severe nowadays. Subsequently, to raise more awareness about the global issue, a climate clock was set up in New York in 2020. When I first saw the Climate Clock, due to viral misinformation, I thought it was a clock timing how much time we have until the world ends. A lot of propaganda was used to promote this worldwide concern. Due to my bias in favor of social media and my lack of previous bad experiences on social platforms, I was an easy target. Thus, demonstrating how, in the area of knowledge in history I inevitably believed recent weak evidence due to my pessimism bias to be the strongest. However, as I have grown up I realized that not everything on social media can be trusted. Additionally, thanks to the TOK course I am better at spotting fake news. I have learned to acknowledge the importance of competency and expertise. In other words, recognizing the possession of specialized knowledge and skills.
 

In the field of natural sciences, Mary Anning contributed a great part to the discovery of the earth science branch by studying and discovering fossils throughout the Jurassic Coast in the 19th century. However, her work was undermined and critiqued, depicting how strong evidence in the area of knowledge of natural sciences was not inevitably considered the strongest. According to the following article, “Mary Anning: the unsung hero of fossil discovery” published by Marie-Claire Eylott, her reputation for finding fossils was growing, however the scientific community was slow to acknowledge her contributions as it was dominated by men. For instance, Mary was the first to find a Plesiosaurus's entire skeleton in 1823 and, due to its unusual appearance, word of it spread so rapidly, there were soon whispers that the fossil was fake. Additionally, Mary would find fossils, clean, prepare, and identify them. Then, male scientists would often purchase these finds, and even write about her remarkable discovery of an ichthyosaur, without giving her any credit for the discovery. This shows proof of bias identified in the evidence, such as gender bias. Male scientists would not recognize a strong primary source by a woman because it went against their norms. Now that we have evolved as a society, we have mostly learnt to get past those gender barriers. Not completely, however steadily. Nowadays, the Natural History Museum in London has several of Anning’s incredible discoveries, such as her ichthyosaur, plesiosaur, and pterosaur. Thus, this perspective depicts how most people were wrong to assume, beginning from the Victorian era until the present-day era (two centuries), that the evidence, which is significantly important for the understanding of our Earth, was weak just because it was given by a woman.

During the Second World War, the Jewish community was made seen as a contiguous virus, demonstrating how weak evidence was assumed to be inevitably the strongest within the area of knowledge of history. According to the following book, “Epidemics and Genocide in Eastern Europe, 1890–1945” published by Arrow Paul, Adolf Hitler declared the Jews to be the "ferment of social decay,". He also claimed in July 1941 to have found evidence of the "Jewish race's" role in poisoning and infecting the political system of Nazi Germany as a "bacillus," "virus," "toxin," or consumptive "parasite." Believing that infectiousness was a sign of inferiority for Jews, he recommended the removal of "Jewish bacteria" in order to bring back the Aryan race's vitality. It must be noted that before Hitler's violent attempt to overthrow the previous government in 1923, almost half of all German doctors had already been part of the Nazi Party (Proctor, 1992, 27; Hayse, 1994, 26–33). This number is especially significant, considering the fact that nearly all of the doctors had received training from or had collaborated with Jewish physicians (Haque et al., 2012, 473). Thus, the Nazi public health officials and German physicians contributed to the spread of these antisemitic beliefs. Although the evidence was known to be inaccurate, it was made seem strong through professional medical advice. This evidence was know to be inaccurate  They created this evidence to dehumanize the Jews in order to make the genocide easier to effectuate. Hence, this perspective shows proof of national bias.
 

Natural sciences aim to develop new cures, for instance through medicine or vaccines, which is why laboratory experiments are vital. Thus, empirical evidence needs to be highly regarded in this area of knowledge as well as enough practice evidence. The COVID-19 vaccine shows proof of recent weak evidence that was assumed to be inevitably the strongest or weakest depending on which part of the world you live in. The COVID-19 vaccine is considered as weak evidence because of the hurriedness the scientists were trying to access it to the public and, thus, the lack of an evidence-informed approach. Although it did drastically decrease the Covid cases (nearly 50% down), there was not enough practice evidence as we do not yet know the long-term effect. It must be noted that weak evidence does not equally mean wrong. Culture plays a very big role in this perspective. Taking into consideration Canada and Bulgaria. Both countries have a drastic difference of  52.89% in the percentage of Covid shots (CA83.2% – BG30.31% = 52.89%). The main reason for this contrast is because of the way it is advertised. Canada is a more developed country which is why it holds a more liberal ideology. However, Bulgaria is a more old-fashioned country and, hence, more conservative. According to the next article, “Why does Bulgaria have the EU’s lowest vaccination rates?” written by Maryia Petkova, that some of the factors contributing to the low vaccination rate include conflicting messages from politicians and health authorities, misinformation, and inadequate vaccination campaigns. Thus, this perspective conveys how cultural bias depicts a differentiation in major decisions.

In conclusion, we are too quick to assume that the most recent evidence is inevitably the strongest. However, further implications should be taken into account. For instance, the role of historical context and societal norms in shaping our perceptions of evidence. Additionally, the scope of bias each area of knowledge can comprise. It is noticed to be more prevalent in the area of knowledge of history than in the field of natural sciences. The particular reason for this position would be due to the subjectivity present in interpreting different historical events and the hefty importance of empirical attestation in the natural sciences. Thus, bias limits our knowledge to a significant extent. Nonetheless, bias will always be present in all areas of knowledge no matter what.  However, to minimize it, it is important to seek evidence that goes against our hypothesis and objectively look at both perspectives. By doing this, we can ensure that we are not blindly accepting weak evidence as strong evidence. Hence, we will have a well-rounded approach that takes into account all factors, providing a more accurate understanding of the world around us.
 

Willemot, V. (2022). German doctors’ motives to becoming Nazi’s. OpenEdition Journals. https://journals.openedition.org/temoigner/10910

Weindling, P. (2000, February 3). Epidemics and genocide in Eastern Europe, 1890–1945. Oxford Academic. https://academic.oup.com/book/27387

United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. (n.d.). Propaganda Poster: “Jews Are Lice: They Cause Typhus.” EXPERIENCING HISTORY Holocaust Sources in Context.
https://perspectives.ushmm.org/item/propaganda-poster-jews-are-lice-they-cause-typhus
 

JSCHUETHBFR. (2021, February 22). Anningiae: Myths and Legacy of Mary Anning. Bias in the Fossil Record Blog. https://fossilbiasblog.com/2021/02/22/anningiae-myths-of-mary-anning/

Eylott, M.-C. (n.d.). Mary Anning: The unsung hero of fossil discovery. Natural History Museum. https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/mary-anning-unsung-hero.html

Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, et al. (2021, January 30). National Library of Medicine. The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States.
PubMed Central. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7929033/

Public Health Agency of Canada. (2023, December 8). Covid-19 vaccination: Vaccination coverage. Government of Canada.
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/

Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. (2023, October 3). Bulgaria - COVID-19 overview. Coronavirus Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/bulgaria

Petkova, M. (2021, November 1). Why does Bulgaria have the EU’s lowest vaccination rates? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2021/11/1/why-is-bulgaria-struggling-with-covid-19-vaccination

NASA. (2022). 2022 tied for fifth warmest year on record. NASA.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150828/2022-tied-for-fifth-warmest-year-on-record

United Nations. (n.d.). What is climate change?. United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/what-is-climate-change#:~:text=The%20consequences%20of%20climate%20change,catastrophic%20storms%20and%20declining%20biodiversity